Despite warm April sunshine and a Royal Wedding to look
forward to consumers remain very gloomy. The April GfK NOP headline confidence
measure fell 3 points to –31, its lowest score since February 2009 and down 15
points on a year ago.
Yesterday’s GDP growth showing a 0.5% quarter gain may well
be a high water mark unless consumer confidence picks up in the coming months,
now firmly at recession levels.
All 5 measures comprising the CCB fell – with the two measures of personal finances showing the biggest drop.
The measure of personal finances now compared to 12 months
ago fell 4 points to –23 while the forward looking measure over the next 12
months also dropped 4 points to –14.
Both past (down 3 points) and future measures (down 1 point)
of the general economic situation also fell and stand 10 and 29 points lower
than a year ago at –57 and –30 respectively.
Spending confidence continues to weaken with both the
spending climate measure for making major purchases of household goods and of
spending intentions in the next 12 months falling in unison, down 2 points to
–31 and down on a year ago.
Depressed spending confidence on big ticket items such as
houses or cars compared to a year ago was a feature of last week’s Nationwide
Consumer Confidence measure suggesting tough trading conditions continuing.
On a brighter note both the March Nationwide survey and the
current GfK survey show slightly improved monthly employment figures – the key
to confidence recovering.
For a full analysis of the mood of the UK consumer subscribe
to the UK Consumer Confidence Monitor – your guide to the health of the
consumer. Contact John Gilbert on 0208 944 7510 / 07740 027968
(j.gilbert@jgfr.co.uk)