October sunshine fails to boost consumer sentiment

Despite some glorious October weather and wonderful autumn colours, the mood of the consumer continues to be downbeat.

The latest GfK NOP consumer confidence barometer (conducted for The European Commission) shows a 2-point fall in October to -32, its lowest level since February 2009, and only 7 points higher than its all-time low of July 2008.

3 of the 5 measures fell, while both current and forward-looking measures of personal finances are unchanged. The two general economic measures both fell by 4 points - to -62 (current) and -31 (forward-looking). Fewer people regard the spending climate for big ticket purchasers as good resulting in 4-point drop in the measure to -32, down 17 points on a year ago, highlighting the slump in spending confidence.

Unemployment expectations deteriorate

A big jump in unemployment expectations is the most concerning aspect of the October survey. On the positive side consumers seem to have adjusted their household finances following falling to the lowest level since December 1995 in September.

Growing regional divide

Widening regional differences are apparent – with confidence very weak in Wales and Northern Ireland. Only in the South and Midlands is confidence below -30.

Nationwide September CCI unchanged

In late September Nationwide released their September CCI that was unchanged on August (46). By comparison, GfK’s September measure was up 1 point. 2 of the 3 sub-indices were slightly higher – the current conditions and spending confidence measures - while the future measure was unchanged. The Nationwide CCI is only 7 points higher than its all-time low recorded last February.

Contact for further details / information

A full analysis of both surveys can be found in the November Consumer Confidence Monitor – essential reading for marketers in uncertain times – and published on November 3rd. Contact John Gilbert (j.gilbert@jgfr.co.uk) for information – and also any specific issues relating to consumer / business confidence you may here or abroad.