UK consumer confidence jumped by 10 points in May to its
highest level (-21) since last December according to GfK NOP in their monthly
Consumer Confidence Barometer (CCB) undertaken for The European Commission.
May’s CCB measure is likely to be replicated in the
Nationwide May measure, released in mid-June. The April Nationwide measure had
slipped 1 point on the month to a recession level of 45.
The 10-point jump in the CCB is the biggest monthly gain
since a 12-point surge in May 1993 at a similar stage of recovery from
recession.
Weak women’s confidence – a feature of recent months –
bounced strongly in May – up 11 points to -24, with improving inflation
expectations a key reason.
Despite faltering economic indicators, the Royal Wedding together with warm sunny weather for much of the month appears to have boosted consumers’ optimism.
Both forward and backward measures of household finances
improved – the forward measure over the next 12 months gaining 11 points to -3
and the backward measure over the past 12 months increased 5 points to -18.
Optimism about the economic situation surged in May rising
15 points to –15, its best level since last August, while fewer people (68%)
regard the current economic situation as worse than in April (76%). The measure
improved from -57 to -44 on the month, slightly better than a year ago (-45).
Despite consumers more optimistic outlook, spending
confidence continues to be relatively weak, with the headline spending measure
although up 5 points in May, well down on a year ago (-21). Savings confidence strengthened
in May with the proportion of households likely to save (56%) in the next 12
months at is highest since the banking crisis of September 2008.
Full details of the shift in the mood of consumers are in
the May Consumer Confidence Monitor covering changes in sentiment across
ages, income groups and regions as well as in relation to the key drivers of
such changes – jobs, prices and the economic situation. Spending and saving
trends and the overall household financial position of households are assessed.
Contact: John Gilbert – j.gilbert@jgfr.co.uk
or ring 0208 944 7510 / 07740 027968